![]() The transformation we need hinges on tackling all of them together. Our analysis concludes that any strategy to build fair and resilient societies must address poverty, inequality, gender imbalances, food insecurity, and energy access. Over the last 50 years, the world has followed the report’s worst-case scenario, and we are beginning to see deep fractures in Earth systems and within societies.īut we believe our future will be built on economic optimism, not despair. At the time, the conclusion that pushing beyond the limits of the planet could lead to collapse shocked many people. Food production would fall, followed by a precipitous decline in population. Back then, scientists used early computer models to show that Earth’s finite resources would eventually buckle under the weight of material consumption. This is the Giant Leap.Įarth4All can trace its origins to the Club of Rome-commissioned report The Limits to Growth, published 50 years ago. Global temperature stabilizes at around 2☌. With extraordinary effort, societies can transform themselves into “well-being economies” that are more resilient to shocks. This is the path we are on.įor a limited time, you can gain greater access to Project Syndicate – including every commentary and our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – starting at less than $6 per month.īut it is not the only path. We can be certain that on our current path, the global increase in average temperature is likely to hit a catastrophic 2.5° Celsius, putting the world in grave danger. The risk of regional collapse grows every decade. Governments struggle to deal with major shocks. In the former, the rich grow richer, leaving the poor further behind. In both scenarios, the global economy grows throughout this century. We explore two scenarios: Too Little, Too Late and The Giant Leap. We present our findings in a new book, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity. Two years ago, we launched the Earth4All initiative, an international collaborative effort by economists, scientists, and advocates to examine policy solutions that steer humanity away from collapse and toward resilience. But while growth is essential to pull the poorest countries out of poverty, resilient societies will be forged not by ever-greater wealth, but by greater social cohesion, good governance, and the capacity to innovate. ![]() But is a collapse of our freewheeling, endlessly inventive, often confounding civilization inevitable? Absolutely not.Īs Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, told world leaders gathered in Egypt this week at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, “We know what it is to remove slavery from our civilization, to find a vaccine within two years for a pandemic, to put a man on the moon.” But the only solution to the current crisis offered by politicians is economic growth. And, yes, we have only ourselves – or, more precisely, the wealthiest among us – to blame. It is now more likely than not that the planet will cross multiple climate tipping points.Ī challenging future undoubtedly awaits, with rolling shocks shaking governments everywhere to their core. In the coming decades, billions of people in the world’s poorest economies will be hit the hardest.
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